Space Intelligence and Defense

Trend Analysis

🔺 Rising:

• Dynamic space operations and satellite maneuverability: Military satellites with sustained maneuver capabilities and on-orbit refueling are becoming operational requirements, enabling unpredictable movements that complicate adversary targeting
• Space domain awareness modernization: Major systems like ATLAS becoming operational after decades of failed attempts, marking significant progress in tracking and characterizing space objects
• Commercial-military space integration: Growing reliance on commercial providers for critical capabilities including satellite refueling, ground infrastructure, and data transport services
• GPS jamming and spoofing proliferation: Over 700 daily incidents worldwide affecting both military and civilian operations, with Russian interference expanding from conflict zones to routine European airspace
• China’s rapid space militarization: From 40 satellites a decade ago to over 1,189 as of July 2025, with demonstrated “dogfighting” maneuvers and comprehensive ISR capabilities
• Multinational space defense cooperation: First-of-its-kind allied operations like U.S.-UK satellite inspections demonstrate maturing coalition space warfighting capabilities

🔻 Declining:

• Space as a benign sanctuary: Post-Cold War assumptions of peaceful space cooperation fading as all major powers actively develop counterspace weapons
• Large exquisite satellite architectures: Shift away from vulnerable high-value targets toward proliferated, resilient constellations of smaller satellites
• Destructive ASAT testing: While capabilities remain, international pressure and self-interest in preventing debris creation reducing kinetic ASAT tests
• Unilateral space operations: Increasing emphasis on allied cooperation and coalition operations over purely national space activities
• Reliance on legacy systems: Decades-old ground infrastructure and command systems finally being retired in favor of modern, software-centric architectures

👀 Watch List:

• Russian nuclear ASAT developments: Persistent concerns about potential deployment despite lack of public information on development timeline
• Space Force’s 100+ satellite deployment: Planned launches through 2025 will nearly double operational spacecraft numbers, testing acquisition and integration capabilities
• China-Russia space cooperation: Joint lunar base plans and technology sharing creating alternative space power bloc to Western alliances
• European space independence efforts: Germany’s €35 billion investment and broader European recognition of space security vulnerabilities driving autonomous capability development
• SpaceX national security concerns: Chinese investment revelations raising questions about foreign access to classified launch operations and space infrastructure
• Quantum-based PNT alternatives: U.S. military investment in non-space-based positioning solutions to reduce GPS vulnerability

🧑‍💻 Expert’s View

The space domain has irrevocably transitioned from peaceful sanctuary to contested warfighting environment. China’s 927% increase in orbital assets since 2015, coupled with demonstrated kinetic and non-kinetic counterspace capabilities, represents the most significant strategic shift in military space since the Cold War. Russia’s systematic GPS jamming campaigns across Europe and tracking of allied military satellites signal normalized electronic warfare in space. The U.S. and NATO response—proliferated satellite constellations, dynamic maneuvering capabilities, and multinational operations—indicates recognition that traditional approaches emphasizing a few high-value platforms are obsolete. However, the $73 billion global investment in space defense remains concentrated in few nations, creating capability gaps even among allies. Most concerning is the normalization of interference operations below the threshold of armed conflict, establishing dangerous precedents for future crises.

🔮 Industry Outlook

The next two months will likely see accelerated deployment of Space Force’s planned 100+ satellites, testing both launch infrastructure capacity and operational integration processes. European nations, spurred by Germany’s €35 billion commitment and ongoing Russian interference, will probably announce additional space defense investments before year-end. China’s space program will continue rapid expansion, with potential demonstration of additional advanced maneuvering or proximity operations capabilities. The commercial space sector should expect increasing military demand for services including satellite refueling, ground infrastructure access, and resilient communication networks. GPS jamming incidents will likely intensify through winter months as conflicts continue, driving faster adoption of anti-jamming technologies and alternative PNT solutions. The most significant near-term development may be operational demonstration of on-orbit refueling capabilities, validating sustained satellite maneuver concepts and fundamentally changing space operations calculus.

📰 Selected News Sources

CSIS Space Threat Assessment 2025 ↗

The Center for Strategic and International Studies released its 2025 Space Threat Assessment covering growing counterspace capabilities of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. The report reveals that Chinese and Russian satellites in both low Earth orbit and geostationary orbit continue displaying increasingly advanced maneuvering capabilities, demonstrating tactics and procedures for space warfighting. While the past year witnessed no headline-grabbing developments, the assessment highlights continuation of worrisome trends including widespread GPS jamming and spoofing in conflict zones around Russia and throughout the Middle East. Concerns persist about Russia potentially deploying a nuclear anti-satellite capability, though no public information surfaced about its development timeline. The report analyzes satellite rendezvous operations, proximity operations, debris creation, and other counterspace topics threatening U.S. national security interests in space.

Russian Space Troops tracked 1,300 Russian, foreign launches this year ↗

Russian Space Troops celebrated their 68th anniversary by announcing they detected and tracked over 1,300 launches of foreign and domestic ballistic missiles and space rockets in 2025. The Main Centre for Reconnaissance of Situation in Space monitored over 3,200 space objects during combat duty, controlled the orbiting of more than 3,000 spacecraft, and supervised the de-orbiting of over 1,300 spacecraft. On-duty missile attack warning systems and space monitoring systems provided comprehensive surveillance capabilities. The announcement demonstrates Russia’s extensive space domain awareness capabilities and commitment to monitoring global space activities, including both civilian and military launches from various nations.

Elon Musk Caught Letting China Invest in SpaceX ↗

Newly unveiled testimony revealed SpaceX has accepted investments directly from Chinese investors despite its extremely close ties to the United States military. Major SpaceX investor Iqbaljit Kahlon confirmed in a 2024 deposition that Chinese investors are directly listed as shareholders, with funds routed through offshore secrecy hubs like the Cayman Islands. The disclosure raises national security concerns about potential foreign espionage exposure, as SpaceX has received seven Space Force and National Reconnaissance Office launch contracts worth $845.8 million this year alone. The company dominates military launch services, far outpacing competitor United Launch Alliance. The revelation sparked controversy given SpaceX’s integral role in classified military operations and Elon Musk’s simultaneous pro-China business stance through Tesla operations in the country.

Space Force declares ATLAS space domain awareness software ‘operational’ ↗

The Space Force announced September 30 that its Advanced Tracking and Launch Analysis System (ATLAS) has been accepted as operational, marking a major milestone in space domain awareness capabilities. ATLAS is a software-centric program for managing, processing, and disseminating space monitoring data, finally enabling the service to replace its dysfunctional 1980s-era Space Defense Operations Center (SPADOC) system. The acceptance delivers key capabilities allowing operations floor personnel to generate satellite catalogs and publish data to Space-track.org. Program Executive Officer Shannon Pallone emphasized this represents just the beginning of addressing gaps in space domain awareness, shifting focus from modernization to closing capability gaps. The program, which began development to replace the failed Joint Space Operations Center Mission System, faced technical issues and schedule delays but is now positioned to improve tracking and characterization of objects in space for persistent monitoring of adversary satellites.

China remains No. 1 threat in space: Space Force general ↗

Lt. Gen. Douglas Schiess, commander of U.S. Space Forces-Space, declared China the top threat in space, warning China is catching up to U.S. military space capabilities at an “incredible pace.” He stated China brings on capability monthly that puts U.S. assets at risk, actively building a “kill chain” for targeting American space systems. According to Space Force intelligence, China operated more than 1,189 satellites as of July 2025, representing a 927% increase since 2015, with over 500 ISR-capable satellites equipped with optical sensors. Space Force intelligence assesses China’s military likely views counterspace operations as deterring and countering U.S. military intervention in regional conflicts. Bradley Bowman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies emphasized space as the “ultimate high ground,” warning that Chinese superiority in space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities would be extremely dangerous for U.S. national security.

Russia is tracking two satellites used by Germany’s military ↗

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius revealed on September 25 that Russia is actively tracking two Intelsat satellites used by the German military through Russian Luch-Olymp reconnaissance satellites. The announcement came during a €35 billion ($41 billion) investment commitment in Germany’s space programs over five years at a Berlin space conference. Pistorius warned that Russia and China possess space warfare capabilities and already occupy strategic positions in space, capable of jamming, blinding, manipulating, or kinetically disrupting satellites. He noted the German military has already experienced jamming attacks. Pistorius emphasized that 39 Chinese and Russian reconnaissance satellites were flying overhead during his speech, with observations transmitted in real-time. The revelation underscores Europe’s vulnerability in space and the continent’s growing recognition that it lags behind the United States, China, and Russia in space capabilities, prompting Europeans to rethink their approach to space security.

Next chapter in space defense: Satellites that never stop moving ↗

The U.S. Space Force is preparing to deploy satellites with sustained maneuvering capabilities as part of emerging “dynamic space operations” and “sustained space maneuver” concepts. These capabilities extend beyond simple life extension, enabling satellites to take action, move to new positions, and continue operations through on-orbit refueling. The Space Force has mandated refueling capability for its next-generation RG-XX constellation replacing the Geosynchronous Space Situational Awareness Program satellites, marking the first time such requirements appear in an official acquisition program. Companies like Orbit Fab and SpaceLogistics are developing commercial refueling infrastructure. The initiative addresses current operational constraints where limited fuel severely restricts satellite flexibility and responsiveness. Maj. Gen. Dennis Bythewood explained the military seeks spacecraft movement and maneuver capabilities to gain advantages against adversaries, with unpredictable position changes making satellites harder to target or track.

The New Era of Space Warfare ↗

NATO space forces leaders agree with U.S. Space Force Chief Gen. B. Chance Salzman that military planners can no longer take the space domain for granted, as the post-Cold War era of peaceful cooperation fades into a competitive and aggressive new era. The shift accelerated after China’s January 2007 anti-satellite weapon test destroying a Chinese satellite, followed by aggressive space weaponization pursuits by both China and Russia. Government investment in space defense continues growing, with an estimated $73.1 billion allocated for 2024—$53.1 billion from the U.S., $9.3 billion from China, $2.3 billion from Russia, and $2.1 billion from France. From U.S. and NATO perspectives, maintaining free access and operational capability in space is vital for national security, as space is essential for real-time targeting, coordination, and force projection. The technological advantage Western nations held after the Cold War is now at risk, prompting calls for increased funding and investment in space-based offensive and defensive capabilities.

The US military just moved a satellite to inspect a UK spacecraft ↗

In a first-of-its-kind operation between September 4-12, U.S. Space Command maneuvered one of its spacecraft to examine the UK’s Skynet 5A military communications satellite at 22,236 miles altitude in geostationary orbit, with both traveling at 6,835 mph. The operation aimed to assure the UK that Skynet 5A was operating as intended in orbit. The maneuver demonstrated capabilities of Multinational Force-Operation Olympic Defender, a space security coalition including the U.S., Canada, UK, and France. U.S. Space Command Commander Gen. Steven Whiting stated the operation showcases the “warfighting advantage” of this coalition, including a shared pledge to fight shoulder-to-shoulder if necessary. Royal Air Force Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton emphasized allies are conducting advanced orbital operations to protect and defend shared national and military interests in space, representing rapid progress in multinational space cooperation.

GPS jamming threat prompts industry warning to US agencies ↗

A coalition of 14 industry groups including Airlines for America, Air Line Pilots Association, and National Business Aviation Association sent a September 5 letter to the U.S. Departments of Transportation and Defense warning that GPS interference poses “a growing threat to aviation and maritime safety and commerce.” European airlines and private jet crews have reported disruptions over the Baltic and eastern Mediterranean attributed to Russian military activity, while shipping operators documented spoofing near ports making vessels appear miles from actual locations. Analysts estimate more than 700 jamming or spoofing incidents occur worldwide daily. Jamming can disable GPS-dependent systems forcing reliance on backup procedures, while spoofing can trick operators into believing they’re in wrong locations, creating dangerous navigational risks. Industry groups urged both departments to strengthen defenses against GPS jamming as interference, once confined to military conflict zones, increasingly spills into civilian operations.

NATO Chiefs of Defence gather in Riga for Military Committee Conference ↗

NATO’s highest military authority, the Military Committee, convened in Riga, Latvia on September 26-27, 2025, bringing together 32 NATO Chiefs of Defence and Strategic Commanders. The conference addressed military developments within the Alliance amid increasingly worrying threats to Euro-Atlantic security, following decisions from the historic NATO Summit in The Hague in June 2025. Chair Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone emphasized NATO’s cohesion and solidarity toward Eastern Flank allies. The Military Committee firmly concurred on the need to further reinforce the Alliance’s posture and capabilities to tackle a degraded security scenario. Admiral Cavo Dragone stated that every threat to NATO’s air, land, and sea space will be met with resolute and proportionate response, specifically addressing recent airspace violations while emphasizing Supreme Allied Commander Europe has all necessary tools. The conference underscored NATO’s readiness and determination to counter hybrid and reckless behaviors.

Space Development Agency launches first operational satellites ↗

The Space Development Agency launched its initial batch of operational satellites on September 10 from Vandenberg Space Force Base, kicking off a 10-month campaign to deliver more than 150 satellites to low Earth orbit. The 21 York Space Systems-built satellites are part of SDA’s Transport Layer, designed to provide fast, secure communication capability to military operators. This represents a new phase for SDA, transitioning from demonstrations to operational capability. Acting SDA Director Gurpartap Sandhoo stated this marks the first time the space layer will be fully integrated into warfare operations, with military operators in the Indo-Pacific as initial “early adopters.” The spacecraft could provide operational capability to combatant commands within four to six months following payload health checks. The next mission featuring Lockheed Martin satellites is slated for mid-October, with SDA aiming to provide regional capacity by the end of Tranche 1 launches.

China shows off advanced hypersonic missiles, ICBMs and drones in military parade ↗

China showcased its growing military might in a September 3 parade in Beijing marking the 80th anniversary of World War II’s end, displaying new hypersonic and intercontinental ballistic missiles along with drone systems. Systems appearing for the first time included those capable of delivering nuclear weapons from air, sea, and land, demonstrating global strike capability. Notable weapons included the JL-1 air-launched long-range missile, JL-3 submarine-launched intercontinental missile, and the HQ-19 midcourse ballistic missile defense interceptor with potential anti-satellite capabilities in low Earth orbit. The HQ-19 is believed to have been used for China’s controversial 2007 anti-satellite test that generated significant space debris. Chinese state news agency Xinhua stated the parade demonstrated the country’s commitment to peaceful development despite global turbulence and uncertainties, though the display highlighted China’s expanding strike and defense capabilities.

What to Know About Russia’s GPS Jamming Operation in Europe ↗

Bulgaria announced it would not investigate suspected Russian electronic interference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s plane on September 2, stating GPS jamming has become so common. The Associated Press tracked almost 80 incidents blamed on Russia by Western officials since the 2022 Ukraine invasion. Nordic and Baltic nations including Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have repeatedly warned about greater electronic interference from Russia disrupting communications with planes, ships, and drones. Expert Thomas Withington from Royal United Services Institute explained that while jamming and spoofing were initially aimed at protecting Russian infrastructure, authorities realized these tactics create useful disruption and disquiet among nations Putin perceives as enemies. While countries along Russia’s border have largely mitigated airspace impacts, potential exists for serious maritime incidents where crews rely solely on GPS rather than radar and charts for navigation.

Showcasing Advanced Space Capabilities, China Displays ‘Dogfighting’ Maneuvers in Low Earth Orbit ↗

U.S. Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. Michael Guetlein revealed on March 18 that Chinese satellites practiced “dogfighting” maneuvers in 2024 designed to replicate tracking and disabling U.S. space assets during military crises. The operation involved three Chinese experimental satellites and two spacecraft operating in concert to practice synchronized deployments in close proximity, similar to aerial dogfighting, intended to practice tactics for potential conflicts. The Chinese Communist Party released a 25-year plan in October 2024 for future space exploration, including plans for moon landings by 2030, while offering significant support to private space firms. These efforts extend to bolstering China’s military space capabilities, including reportedly constructing dual-use ground-based tracking stations in Argentina. China has relied on Russia for its space agenda, with both nations announcing joint plans to construct a shared lunar research base by the early 2030s, countering America’s proposed Artemis Program.

Mapping the Recent Trends in China’s Military Modernisation - 2025 ↗

The Observer Research Foundation published a September 2025 report analyzing recent improvements in China’s People’s Liberation Army development and integration of new weapons and equipment. Russia is helping China develop early warning sensors for ballistic missile launch detection. China deployed a new Large Phased Array Radar in Yunnan Province near Myanmar in 2025 with a reported range exceeding 5,000 km, capable of monitoring deep into Indian territory and tracking missile tests from India’s eastern coast. The report examines developments against continued military tensions despite disengagement agreements in Eastern Ladakh between the Indian Army and PLA. Analysis includes the deployment of Chinese military systems during recent operations and their battlefield efficacy. The PLA continues advancing civil-military integration and embracing revolution in military affairs, with commitment to preparedness reaffirmed at the March 2025 15th National People’s Congress.